article · Energy Sustainable Development/Energy for sustainable development
Firewood and charcoal serve as the primary cooking fuels for approximately 84 percent of Zambian households, driving forest degradation, carbon emissions, and biodiversity loss. National policy targets reducing this reliance to 55 percent by 2027 through alternative cooking options. To understand the wider impacts of this shift, three transition scenarios were analysed: minimising deforestation by banning charcoal, prioritising livelihoods, and delivering clean cooking through centralised infrastructure. Evaluating these pathways across technical, social, economic, and environmental dimensions highlights notable opportunities, such as health benefits, formal job creation, and sustainable rural livelihoods. However, the analysis also identifies serious risks, including the disruption of charcoal supply chain incomes and reduced fuel affordability for poorer households.
Moving away from woodfuels can curb deforestation and lower carbon emissions while improving public health. However, rapid changes can threaten the livelihoods of informal fuel workers and make everyday cooking unaffordable for low-income families. Evaluating these trade-offs ensures that clean energy transitions support broader social and economic development rather than worsening poverty.
This scenario analysis serves as an evidence base for policy-makers, energy planners, and infrastructure financiers designing national clean energy programmes. While it is an analytical study rather than a commercial product, it can inform clean cooking enterprises and energy utilities on market conditions, household affordability barriers, and supply chain risks prior to large-scale investment or rollout in Zambia.
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In Zambia, like many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, firewood and charcoal are the most accessible and affordable cooking fuels for most households. Rapid population growth and urbanisation are increasing demands for woodfuels, driving forest degradation, carbon emissions, biodiversity loss and testing the resilience of land-based systems. Current policy aims to decrease woodfuels as the primary cooking fuels (from approx. 84% of households in 2023 to 55% by 2027) and promote cooking alternatives. The cooking transition can support sustainable development in multiple ways, but holistic analysis of the wide-ranging impacts of different strategies is needed. Reflecting alternative dominant narratives in Zambia, this paper presents three scenarios to illustrate the possible evolution of the cooking sector if driven by a different strategic focus – minimising deforestation through banning charcoal (“Prioritise Forests”), supporting livelihoods (“Prioritise Livelihoods”), and delivering clean cooking through large-scale infrastructure and planning approaches (“Prioritise Centralised Delivery”). A systematic impact analysis is undertaken to evaluate each scenario across social, technical, economic and environmental factors. Potential opportunities are identified, including for health, sustainable rural livelihoods and formal employment. However, substantial transition risks are also identified, such as loss of livelihoods in the charcoal supply chain, and the affordability of cooking for poorer households. This impact assessment, along with insights on the uncertainties and challenges associated with the various approaches, provide a way for policy-makers to explore the desirability and feasibility of different approaches, potential trade-offs, and how clean cooking can contribute to Zambia's broader development agenda.
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DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2026.102111
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