Would climate change pose a challenge to meeting wind targets? A GIS-based approach to unravel impacts and identify suitable sites in Egypt

Abstract

Renewable energy sources are critical choices for achieving long-term energy security while minimizing the effects of climate change. Wind energy in Egypt has received attention, however, wind power potential is dependent on climatic factors such as wind speed and temperature. Therefore, the wind power plan must rely on an in-depth understanding of wind resource sensibility to climate change to guarantee its sustainability, thereby supporting wind plan and climate change strategy. Using GIS analysis, the effect of climate change has been estimated on wind power density by 2065 under the climate change RCP 8.5 scenario. Furthermore, some criteria, such as elevation, slope, road networks, protectorates, archeological sites, touristic sites, and grids, have been used to identify regions that would be suitable for wind projects. The results revealed that wind energy potential is expected to be vulnerable to climate change, reflected in a 1% decrease in regions with high wind power density. Even after considering the effect of climate change, the Suez Gulf region would be the most suitable. Projects can also be expanded to other suitable locations where there are no projects yet, such as the Sinai Peninsula and the Red Sea coast.