Wind power forecasting model based on linguistic fuzzy rules

Abstract

The design and operationalization of a wind energy system is mainly based on wind speed and wind direction, theses parameters depend on several geographic, temporal, and climatic factors. Fluctuating factors such as climate cause irregularities in wind energy production. Therefore, wind power forecasting is necessary before using wind power systems. Furthermore, in order to make informed decisions, it is necessary to explain the system's predictions to stakeholders. The explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) provides an interactive interface for intelligent systems to interact with machines, validate their results, and trust their behavior. In this paper, we provide an interpretable system for predicting wind energy using weather data. This system is based on a two-step method for fuzzy rules learning clustering (FRLC). The first step uses subtractive clustering and a linguistic approximation to extract linguistic rules. The second step uses linguistic hedges to refine linguistic rules. FRLC is compared to with artificial neural network (ANN), random forest (RF), k-nearest neighbors (K-NN), and support vector regression (SVR) models. The experimental results show that the accuracy of FRLC is acceptable regarding the comparison models and outperform them in terms of the interpretability. In parallel with prediction, FRLC model provides a set of linguistic fuzzy rules that explain the obtained results to the stakeholders.