Urbanization, civil conflict, and the severity of food insecurity in Africa

Abstract

Abstract The objective of this article is to examine the impact of urbanization and civil conflicts on the severity of food insecurity for a panel of 43 African countries over the period 2000–2020. Subsequently, the heterogeneous choice models approach was used for the estimations. The results show that urbanization and civil conflict increase food insecurity. The parallel line probability hypothesis results specifically show that a one‐unit increase in urban growth rate increases the probability of belonging to a high‐risk food insecurity category by more than .6 times. Furthermore, the results show that the impacts of urbanization on food insecurity are modulated by civil conflicts in Africa leading to the net effect of .692. This corresponds to the policy threshold of 2.315 when the net positive effect is canceled out. Therefore, this study strongly recommends the need for African economies to develop urban agriculture while controlling the pace of urbanization in order to reduce food insecurity and avoid possible civil wars. Related Articles Asare‐Nuamah, Peter, Anthony Amoah, and Simplice A. Asongu. 2023. “Achieving Food Security in Ghana: Does Governance Matter?” Politics & Policy 51(4): 614–35. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12540 . Ayanoore, Ishmael, and Sam Hickey. 2022. “Reframing the Politics of Natural Resource Governance in Africa: Insights from the Local Content Legislation Process in Ghana.” Politics & Policy 50(1): 119–36. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12449 . Oehmke, James F., Sera L. Young, Godfrey Bahiigwa, Boaz Blackie Keizire, and Lori Ann Post. 2018. “The Behavioral‐Economics Basis of Mutual Accountability to Achieve Food Security.” Politics & Policy 46(1): 32–57. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12244 .