Understanding the 2022 Kenyan presidential election outcome: insights from Key’s critical elections theory

Abstract

The ethnicisation of election and the concomitant diffusion of violence has been widely explored in the literature on Kenyan presidential elections. However, the critical character of the elections has been understudied, especially as it concerns the depth and intensity of involvement occasioned by the realignment of political actors. Oftentimes, this has resulted in the emergence of fundamental changes in power dynamics. This study drew insights from Key’s critical elections theory to analyse the 2022 Kenyan presidential election. Relying on primary and secondary sources, the study contends that the election exhibited critical characteristics owing to the economic crisis and the accompanying hardship on Kenyans, which united the poor electorate behind then-candidate William Ruto. The election revealed a sharp alteration in the pre-existing cleavage within the electorate and a profound readjustment in power relations as Key’s theory posited. This was amply demonstrated by Raila Odinga’s alliance with Uhuru Kenyatta, his old political foe, and Ruto’s populist campaign tenor – hustlers versus dynasties. We argue that the hustler narrative transcended primordial identity because it resonated with the poor electorate irrespective of their ethnicity. Therefore, it is the dynastic realignment and Ruto’s pro-poor campaign strategy that effectively set the tone for a critical election. We concluded that despite the seemingly subpar performance of President Ruto, he is still the candidate to beat in the 2027 presidential election if Odinga wins the African Union Chairmanship election in 2025. This study contributes to the growing body of literature on presidential elections in Africa.