Understanding resilience to climatic shocks among maize farming households in Southwest Nigeria

Abstract

This study assessed the resilience of maize-based farming households to climatic shocks in Southwest Nigeria, where climate variability poses significant threats to food security and rural livelihoods. Using a multistage sampling procedure, primary data were collected from 473 households across Oyo and Ogun States. The analysis employed descriptive statistics and the Resilience Index Measurement and Analysis (RIMA II) framework, complemented with factor analysis to identify the major pillars of resilience. Findings revealed that the majority of household heads were male (87.3%), married (82.9%), and within the active age group (74.9%), having on average 6 household members. Active working adults dominate maize-based farming in the study area. Farming households reported exposure to multiple climatic shocks, with flooding and erosion (64.5%), pest and disease outbreaks (63.9%), high temperatures (61.5%), and drought (56.3%) being most prevalent. These shocks significantly reduced crop yields (51.80%). This reveals that most of the farmers in the study area are troubled by climatic shocks. Resilience classification showed that most households had moderate resilience capacity (79.5%), though 35.3% in Ogun State fell into the low-resilience category, while 19.8% in Oyo State attained high resilience. Factor loadings of the pooled data highlighted assets such as farmland, mobile phones, fertilizer, and tractors, alongside access to credit, extension services, and social safety nets, as the key determinants of resilience. This indicates that farmers with better tools, better information, and better support systems are more resilient. The study concludes that while households demonstrate moderate resilience, limited access to productive resources, infrastructure, and institutional support weakens their adaptive capacity. This implies that resilience is not mainly an individual farmer’s problem but a systemic and policy-related issue. The study recommends scaling up climate-smart agricultural practices, expanding credit and insurance schemes, strengthening farmer organizations, and investing in rural infrastructure to enhance resilience and secure sustainable food production in Nigeria. In addition, economic empowerment and stronger agricultural institutions are essential for improving farming households’ capacity to withstand climatic shocks.