Trends of Climate change: Examination of Trends and Perceived Impacts of Precipitation Variability in Mount Kenya East Region, Kenya

Abstract

Changes in trends of precipitation is of significant influence on human-nature interaction globally. Therefore, understanding the patterns and distribution of precipitation is paramount to the success of many livelihood activities, especially in the rural areas of the global south where agriculture is climate dependent. This study aimed at investigating the trends and perceived impacts of precipitation variability in Mount Kenya East Region (MKER) between 1989 and 2019. The study analysed the historical precipitation data of MKER from Kenya meteorological stations and the IGAD Climate Predictions and Applications Centre (ICPAC) satellite data using Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator to determine the precipitation trend. Furthermore, perceptions of variabilities in precipitation characteristics and their impacts in availability of ecosystem services in the region were obtained by interviewing 54 local respondents. Major results indicated an insignificantly declining trend of the annual precipitation at p <0.05, which was characterized by Sen’s= 0.081 and Kendall’s value of 0.76. This was corroborated by the respondents’ analysis which reported a decline in precipitation characteristics like rainfall amount (70.37%), length of rainfall seasons (92.59%) and number of rainfall seasons per year (5.56%) respectively. Consequently, the respondents reported loss of crop yields, increased water and fodder scarcity among other ecosystem services. Thus there is a need to equip the residents with climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. This will sustain their livelihoods activities which are currently threatened by precipitation variability