Trends in Lung Cancer Mortality in Western Cape Province, South Africa (2007 – 2016)

Abstract

Objective: The objective of this study was to assess annual trends for lung cancer mortality in the Western Cape. Methodology: This was a cross-sectional trends analysis. Data on all lung cancer deaths (2006-2017) and population estimates for the Western Cape and South Africa were used to calculate age-standardized lung cancer mortality rates and standardized mortality ratios (SMR). Mortality trends were investigated with trend lines and polynomial regression analyses. Results: The overall (males and females combined) standardized mortality rate for lung cancer in the Western Cape did not vary significantly over time (p=0.070). The overall rate was lowest in 2008 (80.2 per 100,000 population), and highest during 2015 (107.3 per 100,000 population). For males, the standardized mortality rate did not vary significantly over time (p=0.166) and was lowest during 2009 (109.3 per 100,000 population), and highest during 2011 (146.3 per 100,000 population). For females, a significant increasing trend in the standardized mortality rate was observed (p=0.029), being lowest in 2008 (51.6 per 100,000 population) and highest in 2015 (76.6 per 100,000 population). SMRs ranged from 2.1 to 4.6. Conclusion: Overall mortality rates for lung cancer in the Western Cape remained constant. Males had higher mortality rates than females. The increasing mortality rate among females is a cause for concern and requires further investigation. Lung cancer mortality in the Western Cape is higher than in the rest of South Africa. There is a need for better lung cancer control and improved access to treatment in the Western Cape.