article · ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS RESEARCH
Analysis of climate records from 1983 to 2016 in Western Tigray reveals clear shifts towards hotter and drier conditions across major cash-crop zones. Total rainfall decreased significantly across multiple monitoring locations at rates ranging between 8.4 and 14.7 millimetres per year. Key indicators of extreme precipitation, including heavy rain days, very wet days, and maximum five-day rainfall totals, declined throughout the region. Concurrently, average maximum temperatures increased by 0.04 to 0.051 degrees Celsius per year, accompanied by steady annual increases in both warm days and warm nights. These climatic changes threaten local agricultural production by reducing soil water balance and impairing crop transpiration and photosynthetic rates, while also potentially aggravating the distribution of vector-borne diseases such as malaria and leishmaniasis.
Rising temperatures and diminishing rainfall present severe risks to food security and farm livelihoods in semi-arid zones. Documenting precise local climate trends allows agricultural planners, farming communities, and public health officials to anticipate environmental stress, adjust cultivation practices for essential crops, and prepare for heightened disease transmission in vulnerable areas.
This research provides early-stage climate evidence that can guide adaptation planning for commercial farmers and agricultural investors cultivating sesame, cotton, and sorghum. Agribusinesses, seed developers, and irrigation technology providers could use these trend assessments to target the deployment of drought-tolerant seed varieties and water-efficient management systems, though the findings require further applied development before directly informing commercial products.
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Abstract Background Africa is the most vulnerable continent in the world; which recurrent droughts, extreme temperature and rainfall affects agriculture and food security. The aim of this study was to analyze the trends in extreme temperature and rainfall in major sesame producing areas in western Tigray using RClimDex software. We selected eight temperature and nine rainfall indices from 27 extreme temperature and rainfall indices, which are recommended by joint CCL/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). A non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimates were used to test the statistical significance and trend of each of the extreme temperature and rainfall indices, respectively. Results Number of heavy rainy days, number of very heavy rainy days, very wet days, extremely wet days, and maximum 5 days precipitation showed a negative trend, with significant (p < 0.05) decrease throughout the study area. Monthly maximum value of maximum and minimum value of maximum temperature, monthly maximum and minimum value of minimum temperature, hot days and hot nights revealed positive trend throughout the study areas. Total rainfall was decreasing significantly (p < 0.05) by 13.34 mm, 13.8 mm, 14.65 mm, 10.9 mm and 8.4 mm/year at Humera and Dansha, Adiremets, Maygaba, Maytsebri and Sheraro, and Adigoshu, respectively. Spatial analysis on extreme temperature also indicated there was relatively lower variability on minimum temperature in Humera, Dansha, Adiremets, and Adigoshu. On average, the western part of Tigray experienced a reduction in total rainfall ranging 8.45 to 14.7 mm/year; and increase in average maximum temperature of 0.04 to 0.051 °C/year since 1983 to 2016. The results also revealed an increase in warm nights and warm days ranging from 0.31 to 0.62 days, and 0.38 to 0.71 days/year, respectively. Conclusions Increase in temperature and decrease in amount of rainfall may have a negative impact on crop transpiration, photosynthetic rate and soil water balance; exacerbating distribution and infestation of malaria and leishmaniasis. The results in this study could have an important role in identifying possible present and future production strategies on sesame, cotton, and sorghum crops, which are essential cash crops produced by farmers and investors.
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DOI: 10.1186/s40068-020-00165-6
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