Trend analysis of meteorological data and community perception of climate change in Southern Ethiopia

Abstract

Understanding community perceptions of climate change at the local level is essential for designing adaptation strategies in local context. Smallholder farmers in agropastoral and pastoral communities face significant threats from climate change due to heavy dependence on rain-fed agriculture. Yet local-scale trends in agropastoral and pastoral district like Adola Rede remain untapped. This study analyzes 35-year (1983–2018) rainfall and temperature trends in four villages of Adola Rede district using Ethiopian Meteorological Institute data and NASA POWER data. To analyze community perception of climate change trend, 328 households were randomly selected. Moreover, four focused group discussions (FGDs) and ten key informant interviews (KIIs) were conducted. The study employed the standardized precipitation index and Mann–Kendall test to assess rainfall and temperature trend across four villages. Results revel that there is an increasing night-time temperatures around the highland areas. Results reveal that there are more intense late-season precipitation during the month of August, which increased from 1.05 to 1.19 mm/yr. Drought was detected in 1991and 1999 with standardized precipitation index (SPI) value of less than 2.0. The highlands areas have been warming significantly faster than the lowlands. Climatic trends directly impacted agro-pastoral livelihoods, with 90% of the community reporting droughts and rainfall irregularities. Drought and rainfall irregularities can significantly affect sustainable development which requires climate change adaptation strategies such as drought resistant crop and improved livestock varieties. As climate change is evident in the study area, water harvesting, drought-resistant crops and early warning systems are essential to minimize potential impacts of climate change on community livelihoods.