Trade–peace conundrum in Africa: The moderating effects of poverty and inequality

Abstract

Abstract This paper examines the trade–peace nexus in Africa and ascertains how poverty and inequality tilt the relationship in the eight regional (economic) blocs in Africa, viz. the Arab Maghreb Union (UMA), the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), the Community of Sahel–Saharan States (CEN–SAD), the East African Community (EAC), the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC), from 1998 to 2020 using the Driscoll–Kraay estimate. The study contributes to the literature by disaggregating the peace effect of trade in Africa by the regional (economic) blocs to allow for in‐depth and context‐specific analysis. The paper also expands the scope of existing studies by examining the direct effect of poverty and inequality on peace in addition to the indirect effect that is revealed through their interactions with trade integrations. The findings reveal that trade promotes peace in Africa, while wide income inequality and a large poverty gap increase the likelihood of conflict. The interaction of poverty and inequality with trade integration shows that while the poverty level does not improve the effect of trade on peace, inequality reduces the impact of trade on peace. The study concludes that poverty and inequality play significant roles in the trade–peace nexus in Africa. Policy recommendations are discussed.