The Relationship between Lagos Rail Mass Transit Operations and Commuter Mobility in Lagos, Nigeria

Abstract

Operational performance is key to achieving tangible mobility benefits from urban rail infrastructure. This study examines the effects of LRMT operations on commuter mobility in Lagos, Nigeria. A quantitative survey approach was adopted to study commuters along the Blue and Red Line corridors. From an estimated 3,997,248 commuter movements, a sample of 400 was drawn using Yamane's formula and multistage station sampling, of which 372 responses were usable. The commuter mobility function was modelled using distance travelled, service reliability, timeliness of departure and passenger satisfaction through ordinary least squares regression at the 0.05 significance level. The results showed that LRMT operations significantly influenced commuter mobility, explaining 85.4% of the variation in commuter mobility (R2 = 0.854). Passenger satisfaction had the strongest influence (β = 0.379), followed by service reliability (β = 0.318), timeliness of departure (β = 0.315) and distance travelled (β = 0.189). All four factors had positive and statistically significant effects on commuter mobility (p < 0.001). The findings show that network extent supports mobility, but service quality and reliability provide a stronger operational pathway. The study concluded that LRMT achieves mobility through service consistency, timeliness of departure and passenger satisfaction rather than merely through the existence of infrastructure. The performance focus should therefore be on headway consistency, departure punctuality, disruption management, passenger feedback and station-train service continuity.