article · Hydrology research
An analysis of drought patterns across Ethiopia's twelve major river basins between 1981 and 2018 reveals historical drought episodes, showing notable variations in 1984, 2009, and 2015. Using the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, the investigation determined that twelve-month indices generally increased across almost all basins, with the exception of the Wabi-Shebelle catchment in the south. Shorter-term assessments over three-month intervals identify higher drought occurrences in eastern and central regions. Seasonal rainfall variations link closely to large-scale climate drivers. During the March to May rains, precipitation correlates negatively with the Indian Ocean Dipole. From June to September, precipitation correlates negatively with the Nino 3.4 index and positively with the Indian Ocean Dipole. El Niño conditions bring reduced rainfall to the Ethiopian highlands, whereas La Niña brings wetter conditions to northern and central highlands but drier conditions to the south.
Drought poses severe challenges to water security, agriculture, and communities in Ethiopia. By uncovering historical drought trends and clarifying how oceanic climate drivers influence regional rainfall, this research helps improve the understanding of local weather vulnerabilities. Such knowledge is valuable for hydrologists, disaster planning agencies, and policy makers working to prepare for climate extremes and manage shared water catchments.
The findings represent early-stage empirical research into climate and catchment dynamics. While the abstract does not indicate a direct product or commercialisation pathway, the mapped climate relationships could eventually inform weather forecasting services, agricultural planning models, or regional risk-assessment tools used by insurers, environmental consultants, and public water resource authorities.
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ABSTRACT This study examines drought patterns in Ethiopia's 12 major river basins from 1981 to 2018 using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Both indices reveal historical drought episodes with slight variations, with significant differences in 1984, 2009, and 2015. Except for the Wabi-Shebelle catchment in southern Ethiopia, all river basins show an increasing trend in SPI12 and SPEI12 indices. The eastern and central regions experience more drought according to SPEI3. Seasonal correlations show that during the March–May rainy season, precipitation is negatively correlated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index, while in the June–September season, it negatively correlates with Nino 3.4 and positively with IOD. The study also found that El Niño leads to less rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands, while La Niña results in more rainfall in the central and northern highlands but less in the south.
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DOI: 10.2166/nh.2024.192
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