The nexus of political regime and income inequality in South Africa: a complex interplay

Abstract

This study analyses the relationship between political regimes and income inequality in South Africa over the period 1965 to 2019, with particular emphasis on the apartheid era and the democratic period. Employing Bayesian vector autoregression and Bayesian Generalized Method of Moments techniques, the study accounts for dense parameterisation, heterogeneity, and complex institutional dynamics affecting income distribution. The findings indicate that South Africa continues to experience persistent income inequality rooted in deeply entrenched racialised socio-economic structures, despite the transition to democracy. Political regimes are shown to shape income outcomes through institutional design, governance quality, and policy orientation. The study argues that addressing inequality requires a comprehensive and coordinated policy framework centred on strengthening democratic institutions, accountability mechanisms, and leadership transparency. Redistributive and desegregation strategies, including land redistribution, remain critical for correcting historical injustices and enabling inclusive economic participation. Complementary interventions such as skills development, education investment, progressive taxation, entrepreneurship support in marginalised regions, economic diversification, and the removal of structural barriers to social mobility are essential to promote inclusive growth, employment creation, and long-term socio-economic equity.