article · The International Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities Invention
This research evaluates the effects of climate change on water security within the Sudd wetland in Jonglei State, South Sudan. By analysing historical data from 1901 to 2020 alongside projections under two climate scenarios, the work documents clear warming trends and erratic rainfall patterns. Historical records between 1951 and 2020 demonstrate an annual temperature rise of roughly 0.0315 degrees Celsius. Future projections suggest further mean temperature increases between 0.5 and 1.51 degrees Celsius depending on the emissions pathway and timeframe. Because over 80 percent of rural households in the region rely on rain-fed agriculture, these shifting patterns could cause crop yield reductions of up to 50 percent. This creates substantial vulnerability for local populations, especially women. To address these threats, the work highlights the need for integrated water resource management, policy reform, and coordinated stakeholder action.
The Sudd wetland is essential for rural livelihoods that depend directly on predictable rainfall. Rising temperatures and unstable weather patterns threaten up to half of regional agricultural yields. Understanding these projected climate shifts enables regional policymakers, development organisations, and local communities to plan water storage, agricultural adaptation, and targeted socioeconomic protections for vulnerable groups such as rural women before severe shortages occur.
The abstract does not indicate an application pathway, as it focuses on climate trend analysis, vulnerability modelling, and policy recommendations for water resource management rather than commercial technologies.
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Climate change posed a significant global challenge, characterized by long-term alterations in climate patterns. This study evaluated the impact of climate change on water security in the Sudd region, with a focus on Jonglei State, South Sudan. Utilizing historical and projected climate data, including the SSP1-1.9 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios, the study examined temperature and precipitation trends, highlighting substantial changes over several decades. The results revealed an upward warming trends and erratic rainfall patterns, represented by the regression equation y = 0.1126x+29.292, and y = 6.1977x+159.45 for the historical climate data from 1901 to 2020, respectively (figure 3.3). Annual and 5-year average temperature trends analysis from 1951 to 2020 revealed annual increase of approximately 0.0315°C, totalling around 0.1575°C over five years (figure 3.2 (a)). Climate projections indicated continued warming, with mean temperature increases ranging from 0.5°C to 0.67°C for the period 2020-2039, rising to 0.77°C to 0.95°C by 2040-2059 under the SSP1-1.9 scenario, and 1.21°C to 1.51°C under SSP3-7.0. Rainfall patterns exhibited moderate uncertainty; however, positive correlations were observed in both scenarios. Approximately more than 80% of rural households in the Sudd region depended on rain-fed agriculture, with future projections suggesting potential yield reductions of up to 50%. This underscores the vulnerability of local communities, particularly women, who face disproportionate impacts due to socioeconomic factors. The findings emphasize the need for Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) to enhance resilience against climate variability. The study advocates for robust policies and multi-stakeholder coordination to address the interconnected challenges of water security and socioeconomic stability. Ultimately, the study offers actionable recommendations to improve resilience and promote long-term stability in the Sudd region.
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DOI: 10.18535/ijsshi/v12i09.03
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