The effects of climate change and population dynamics on new Brunswick’s energy demand

Abstract

Abstract This study analyses the combined impact of climate change and population dynamics on energy demand in New Brunswick, Canada. We identify the regions where changes in energy demand are expected to be most pronounced and examine how the spatial concentration of populations in urban cores will interact with local climatic trends. To this end, we develop a spatially explicit framework that integrates climate data from CMIP6 simulations with socioeconomic projections from the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). This framework enables the estimation of population-weighted heating and cooling degree days (CDDs) for both current and future population distributions. We evaluate three combined climate–socioeconomic scenarios: SSP1-2.6 (optimistic), SSP2-4.5 (moderate), and SSP5-8.5 (pessimistic). While the results confirm a substantial reduction in heating demand (up to − 50% under SSP5-8.5) and a sharp increase in cooling demand (up to +1000%), the granular analysis reveals pronounced spatial heterogeneity. Cooling demand is projected to become highly concentrated along the province’s central axis, with Moncton, Fredericton, and Saint John emerging as major hotspots, whereas rural communities are expected to experience a more rapid decline in heating needs. Although overall provincial population growth has a limited effect, projected urbanization significantly intensifies these trends, resulting in an average 5% decrease in heating demand and an average 8% increase in cooling demand across all scenarios. Under SSP5-8.5, urbanization leads to an additional 18.3 CDDs and 210 fewer heating degree days, thereby amplifying the urban heat island effect in major urban centres.