article · Conflict and Health
Recurrent droughts and armed conflicts have caused significant instability in Somalia for over thirty years. By analysing monthly district-level secondary panel data across the country from 2016 to 2023, the research identifies the specific risk factors driving new internal population displacements. The assessment evaluated the combined drought index, armed conflict occurrences, water prices, and levels of food insecurity. Over the seven-year period, the proportion of internally displaced persons across Somalia rose from 9.1 percent to 10.52 percent. Negative binomial mixed-effects regression models demonstrated that armed conflict, elevated water prices, and food insecurity were all significantly linked to increases in internally displaced populations. The findings suggest that interventions must tackle both armed conflict and immediate economic stressors to effectively curb further displacement.
Internal displacement disrupts communities, increases humanitarian distress, and strains regional resources. Identifying the specific drivers behind displacement allows governments and humanitarian agencies to anticipate population movements and design interventions that target root causes, such as violence and resource access, rather than simply reacting to displacement after it happens.
The statistical models and identified risk factors could inform decision-support systems and predictive planning tools for humanitarian agencies and governmental organisations. Because the research represents applied observational analysis of historical panel data, translating it into deployable early-warning operational software would require further software development and real-time data integration.
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Droughts and conflict-related crises have frequently affected Somali states over the past three decades. Analyzing the drivers of displacement during crisis can provide critical insights for governmental and humanitarian efforts aimed at mitigating these effects. The study aimed to identify the risk factors associated with population movement in Somalia. An ecological analysis was conducted using secondary panel data stratified by month and district. The analysis covered the entire population of Somalia between 2016 and 2023. The number of new internally displaced persons (IDPs) in each district and month was used to establish the outcome. Armed conflict, combined drought index (CDI), food insecurity, and water prices were the risk factors included. Negative binomial mixed-effects regression models, with district included as a random effect, were used for the analysis. Between 2016 and 2023, the proportion of IDPs increased from 9.1% to 10.52%. Conflict, food insecurity, and water prices were significantly associated with internally displaced persons. These findings highlight the importance of addressing conflict and economic stressors to reduce the number of IDPs in Somalia.
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DOI: 10.1186/s13031-026-00837-7
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