The contribution of the green legacy initiatives to land cover dynamics in the Buno Bedele Zone, Southwest Ethiopia

Abstract

• Ethiopia’s Green Legacy Initiative (GLI) has increased the forest cover significantly. • Increasing forest cover reflects a positive response to large-scale tree planting through GLI. • Forest land, settlement, and water bodies in the study areas show positive trends over. Ethiopia’s Green Legacy Initiative has significantly contributed to increasing forest cover change and biodiversity conservation. This study evaluated the contribution of the Green Legacy Initiative (GLI) to land cover dynamics in the Buno Bedele Zone, southwest Ethiopia. The Ethiopian government aims to compact deforestation through mass mobilization when trees are planted to increase forest cover and mitigate the impact of climate change. A multi-imagery satellite was employed to categorize land use/land cover (LULC) dynamics. A linear regression model was used to analyse the associations between the spectral indices and land surface temperature (LST). The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and LST were assessed for vegetation dynamics and surface thermal response and analysed using QGIS software. Significant LULC events occurred during 1990 and 2019, with agricultural land expanding from 118,971.3 ha to 187,387.4 ha and settlement areas more than doubling. In contrast, forest cover declined sharply from 103,769.5 ha to 81,189.6 ha, indicating increased pressure on natural ecosystems prior to GLI. Between 2019 and 2025, agricultural land decreased from 187387.4 ha (63.24%) to 154143.6 ha (52.24%); other land uses, such as forestland, increased from 81896.6 ha (27.64%) to 113319.2 ha (38.24%); grasslands increased from 9131.4 ha (3.08%) to 9989.49 ha (3.37%); water bodies increased from 254.02 ha (0.09%) to 328.7 ha (0.11%); and settlements increased from 5577.05 ha (1.88%) to 6677.04 ha (2.25%). The results revealed that there was a negative relationship between the NDVI and LST, indicating that increasing vegetation cover through the GLI influences microclimate modification. The minimum and maximum LSTs decreased by approximately 0.13°C and 1.16°C, respectively, due to GLI implementation. Overall, the study underscores that the GLI contributed to increasing forestland cover and was an effective nature-based solution for ecological sustainability.