The African Penguin <i>Spheniscus demersus</i> should be considered Critically Endangered

Abstract

The African Penguin <i>Spheniscus demersus</i> has been considered a threatened species since 1984 and, aside from a short period around 2000, its population has been in constant decline since at least the 1950s. By combining counts of the numbers of breeding pairs made at 26 colonies in South Africa and Namibia between 1979 and 2023 with Bayesian state–space models we reassess the species’ conservation status. The breeding population has declined by 77.8% (95% credible intervals: 71.8–84.6%) over the last 30 years (3 generations), from ∼44 300 breeding pairs in 1993 to ∼9 900 pairs in 2023. This falls just below the threshold for a global IUCN Red List status of Critically Endangered (CR) under criterion A2. However, the decline in Namibia exceeds that threshold at the national level (30-year decline = 82.4%, 78.2–86.2%) following the loss of ∼3 600 breeding pairs there in the last 5 years. In South Africa, the Western Cape population is now declining at &lt;1.5% per annum, but the annual rate of decline in the Eastern Cape has worsened substantially, reaching 13% over the last 10 years. Overall, the global population has more than halved in the last decade and has fallen below 10 000 pairs for the first time. Moreover, “moving window reductions” over 3 generations using observed and projected population trajectories (up to the year 2033) indicate that the decline of the African Penguin population will exceed the 80% CR threshold (under criterion A4ab) with a high probability by 2028. Accordingly, we propose that the African Penguin should be transferred to the IUCN Red List category Critically Endangered.