Tertiary education massification and institutional dynamics: a longitudinal analysis of a South African university

Abstract

Amid the ongoing massification of higher education in Southern Africa, there remains limited empirical evidence on how expanded enrolments are reflected in institutional performance indicators and selected dimensions of academic quality in the South African context. This study examines institutional trends associated with the massification of tertiary education in South African higher education institutions, using a selected South African university as the unit of analysis. Employing desk research, a quantitative descriptive design, the study utilises secondary institutional data obtained from the Institutional Information Systems Unit of the selected university for the period 2019–2025. The study examines trends in enrolment, student performance, staff capacity, and institutional strategies. Findings indicate differentiated enrolment trajectories across faculties, relatively stable graduation rates with some fluctuations, improving student retention in recent years, and sustained reliance on both permanent and temporary academic staff. While the student-to-staff ratio remains relatively stable, variations across institutional indicators highlight the complexity of managing expansion within resource constraints. This study contributes to the understanding of how massification-related pressures are reflected in institutional patterns over time and provides a basis for further research on higher education dynamics in similar contexts.