Sustainable land management for food security: a geospatial analysis of desertification sensitivity and agricultural productivity in arid regions

Abstract

Introduction Desertification risk is one of the main environmental, social and economic issues affecting sustainable development and food security in arid and semi-arid regions. Materials and methods This study aims to use geospatial information to evaluate and map the environmental sensitivity areas for desertification (ESAs) in Naser Al-thawra Village area, New Valley, Egypt, using the modified Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use Model (MEDALUS). We combined Current and Potential Land Productivity Indicators (CLPI/PLPI) to link desertification risk with food production capacity. Results and discussion The obtained data reveals that 36.73% of the study area is characterized by high and very sensitive areas to desertification (Critical type of ESA), moderate sensitive areas about 23.39% (Fragile type), while the no sensitive/very low sensitive areas (Non-Affected type) occupies approximately 25.39% of the study area. For land productivity assessment results showed that for Current Land Productivity Index (CLPI) most of the study areas 43.73%; are poor classes (class IV) in terms of agricultural use, the 22.65% are extremely poor class or nil (class V) and 19.14% are average area (class III). Also, for Potential Land Productivity Index (PLPI) 10.44% of the study area are excellent area (class I), the 35.47% are good (class II), the 16.96% are average (III) and 22.65% are poor area (class IV). Furthermore, our comprehensive analysis identifies a substantial opportunity: about 45.9% of land defined as critically susceptible to desertification simultaneously exhibits good-to-excellent potential productivity (PLPI Classes I-II). This delineates high-priority areas where focused interventions may simultaneously reduce desertification and improve food production. The research directly supports the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly Goals 2 (Zero Hunger), 13 (Climate Action), and 15 (Life on Land), by advancing approaches that mitigate land degradation and enhance agricultural resilience in arid regions. Its outcomes strengthen the foundations of food security through sustainable land management and climate-adaptive planning.