Statistical modelling to assessing and enhancing road traffic safety in Tripoli, Libya: A systematic approach

Abstract

In recent years, there is gradual increase in the needs for private vehicle ownership in Libya due to the lack and poor public transportation infrastructure which results in the growth of road traffic accidents (RTAs), particularly in Tripoli. Therefore, in order to evaluate RTAs, the current study used a systematic method that looks at three variables: the driver, the vehicle, and urban conditions. Besides, in order to explore the causes and factors that contribute to RTAs in the city, the current study used multiple correspondence analysis and logistic regression analysis to examine the data of 1) drivers and 2) vehicles involved in accidents, and 3) RTAs reported between 2015 and 2019 on twelve major urban roads in Tripoli. The findings show that each of the 12 chosen routes had a severity index (SI) above 10 and that RTAs regularly happened on those roads. RTAs most commonly happened as a result of driver negligence, which included speeding, being careless, failing to give priority, using a phone while driving, and negotiating bends incorrectly. While the results of the logistic regression analysis showed that increasing the width of the road median, crosswalks, and pedestrian bridges as well as the number of lanes and traffic signs would significantly increase road traffic safety (RTS), by following the distinct RTA-related factors such as sign boards on each road. A reduction in RTA frequency in Tripoli might be achieved by enhancing driver education and risk perception (drivers should maintain a high degree of awareness, refrain from distractions, respect traffic rules, and modify their driving style to the conditions of the road as well as their own physical and mental health), as the majority of RTAs there are caused by speeding and inattention, and by improving the nation's road infrastructure. The current study helps to design the policy of creating and putting into practice a systematic approach for safer roads in Tripoli.