Statistical and Geomatic Approaches to Typological Characterization and Susceptibility Mapping of Mass Movements in Northwestern Morocco’s Alpine Zone

Abstract

The Rif Mountains in northern Morocco are highly exposed to geohazards, particularly earthquakes and mass movements. In this context, the Zoumi region is most affected, showing various mass movement types involving both unconsolidated and solid materials. This study evaluates the region’s susceptibility to mass movements using logistic regression (LR), applied for the first time in this area. The model incorporates eight key predisposing factors known to influence mass movement: slope gradient, slope aspect, land use, drainage density, elevation, lithology, fracturing density, and earthquake isodepths. Historical mass movements were mapped using remote sensing and field surveys, and statistical analysis calculation was conducted to analyze their spatial correlation with these environmental conditioning factors. A mass movement susceptibility (MMS) map was produced, classifying the region into four susceptibility levels, ranging from low to very high. Landslides were the most frequent movement type (36%). The LR model showed strong predictive performance, with an AUC of 88%, confirming its robustness. The final map reveals that 42% of the Zoumi area falls within the high to very high susceptibility zones. These results highlight the importance of using advanced modeling approaches to support risk mitigation and land use planning in environmentally sensitive mountain regions.