Spatio-Temporal Rainfall Variability and Statistical Downscaling of Future Climate Scenarios: Implications for Human Displacement in South Sudan

Abstract

In this study, climate variability and environmental shocks were examined to show displacement patterns in South Sudan. The Environmental shocks interact with socio-political instability caused South Sudanese to migrate within and across the country’s borders. In the Methodology, Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) was used to investigate spatio-temporal rainfall variability. The result indicated that Southern Indian easterly wind, airflow from the Congo Basin, and the Atlantic Ocean, African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) triggered convection and rainfall variability during Spring (MAM), Summer (JJA), and Autumn (SON) seasons. In the summer (JJA) season, the dominant variances (28%, 24%, and 9%) were observed in the South-east, West, and North-west, respectively. Projections for Bor, Juba and Malakal used the SDSM to project changes in minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax), and rainfall for the 2020s and 2050s.In Juba by the 2020s, Tmin RCP2.6 increase will be 0.14⁰C, and by 0.19⁰C in RCP4.5. The (Tmax) RCP2.6 increase will be 0.15⁰C, and by 3.75⁰C in RCP4.5. Secondary data for migration and displacement patterns were systematically analysed and cross-referenced with the variability and projection data. According to the study’s findings, environmental shocks in the study area lead to pastoralists' forced migration. In addition to displacement and tension in the host communities