Spatio-Temporal Dynamics and Future Projection of Land Use for the Sustainable Restoration of Forest Landscapes in the Central Plains of Togo

Abstract

The degradation of forest landscapes in West Africa, particularly in Togo, threatens ecological and socio-economic sustainability. This study analyzes the spatio-temporal dynamics of land use in the central plains of Togo between 1991 and 2022, and projects its evolution for 2030 and 2050 to guide restoration strategies. The methodology integrates the interpretation of Landsat images (1991, 2005, 2022) and the analysis of indicators, including conversion rates and the anthropization index. Prospective modeling (Markov chains and neural networks) follows a trend scenario. The results reveal a sharp decline in natural forest formations: dense semi-deciduous and dense dry forests (−50.55%) and woodlands (−62.06%), converted mainly to cropland, plantations, and built-up areas. Shrub/tree savannas, the dominant class, represent a transitional stage resulting from forest degradation. The average annual deforestation rate is 0.75%. The ecological disturbance index increased from 0.24 (1991) to 0.45 (2005), and then to 0.56 (2022), reflecting increased human impact and fragmentation. Projections indicate that these trends will continue, highlighting the growing vulnerability of ecosystems and the need to integrate this dynamic into sustainable management and restoration policies.