Spatial Prediction of Groundwater Withdrawal Potential Using Shallow, Hybrid, and Deep Learning Algorithms in the Toudgha Oasis, Southeast Morocco

Abstract

Water availability is a key factor in territorial sustainable development. Moreover, groundwater constitutes the survival element of human life and ecosystems in arid oasis areas. Therefore, groundwater potential (GWP) identification represents a crucial step for its management and sustainable development. This study aimed to map the GWP using ten algorithms, i.e., shallow models comprising: multilayer perceptron, k-nearest neighbor, decision tree, and support vector machine algorithms; hybrid models comprising: voting, random forest, adaptive boosting, gradient boosting (GraB), and extreme gradient boosting; and the deep learning neural network. The GWP inventory map was prepared using 884 binary data, with “1” indicating a high GWP and “0” indicating an extremely low GWP. Twenty-three GWP-influencing factors have been classified into numerical data using the frequency ration method. Afterwards, they were selected based on their importance and multi-collinearity tests. The predicted GWP maps show that, on average, only 11% of the total area was predicted as a very high GWP zone and 17% and 51% were estimated as low and very low GWP zones, respectively. The performance analyses demonstrate that the applied algorithms have satisfied the validation standards for both training and validation tests with an average area under curve of 0.89 for the receiver operating characteristic. Furthermore, the models’ prioritization has selected the GraB model as the outperforming algorithm for GWP mapping. This study provides decision support tools for sustainable development in an oasis area.