Spatial Mapping for Multi-Hazard Land Management in Sparsely Vegetated Watersheds Using Machine Learning Algorithms

Abstract

Abstract This study breaks new ground by developing a multi-hazard vulnerability map for the Tensift watershed and the Haouz plain in the Moroccan High Atlas area. The unique juxtaposition of flat and mountainous terrain in this area increases sensitivity to natural hazards, making it an ideal location for this research. Previous extreme events in this region have underscored the urgent need for proactive mitigation strategies, especially as these hazards increasingly intersect with human activities, including agriculture and infrastructure development. In this study six advanced machine learning (ML) models were used to comprehensively assess the combined probability of three significant natural hazards: flooding, gully erosion, and landslides. These models rely on causal factors derived from reputable sources, including geology, topography, meteorology, human activities, and hydrology. The research's rigorous validation process, which includes metrics such as specificity, precision, sensitivity, and accuracy, underlines the robust performance of all six models. The validation process involved comparing the model's predictions with actual hazard occurrences over a specific period. According to the outcomes in terms of the area under curve (AUC), the XGBoost model emerged as the most predictive, with remarkable AUC values of 93.41% for landslides, 91.07% for gully erosion and 93.78% for flooding. Based on the overall findings of this study, a multi-hazard risk map was created using the relationship between flood risk, gully erosion, and landslides in a geographic information system (GIS) architecture. The innovative approach presented in this work, which combined ML algorithms with geographical data, demonstrates the power of these tools in sustainable land management and the protection of communities and their assets in the Moroccan High Atlas and regions with similar topographical, geological, and meteorological conditions that are vulnerable to the aforementioned risks.