article · Water
Assessing water runoff under changing land cover and climate patterns is vital for managing water resources sustainably. A hydrological study modelled future runoff across three Indian watersheds with distinct agro-climatic conditions: Wunna, Bharathapuzha, and Mahanadi. Researchers combined high-resolution satellite imagery, cellular automata Markov projections, and downscaled climate data across moderate and extreme climate scenarios using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. The model achieved reliable predictive accuracy in simulating these hydrological processes. Projections revealed substantial increases in surface runoff by 2040 under the most extreme climate scenario, largely driven by urbanisation. In southern Bharathapuzha, runoff is projected to exceed 1000 mm, while southeastern Wunna and northwestern Mahanadi could see increases beyond 600 mm and 400 mm respectively. To address risks to water quality, agriculture, and urban infrastructure, a sustainable action plan incorporating nature-based solutions was developed.
Changes in climate and rapid urban expansion alter how water moves across landscapes, increasing the threat of flooding, soil degradation, and infrastructure damage. By predicting future runoff across diverse agro-climatic zones, watershed managers and regional authorities can better design targeted interventions, such as wetland restoration, to safeguard agricultural security, protect urban environments, and support sustainable water management goals.
The predictive framework and action plan could inform environmental consultancies, regional water authorities, and urban planners developing climate adaptation schemes. Applications include assessing flood risk and evaluating nature-based solutions like wetland restoration. The methodology remains at the applied research stage, having been tested and calibrated across three specific watersheds, and would require local data integration before direct operational deployment elsewhere.
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Assessing runoff under changing land use/land cover (LULC) and climatic conditions is crucial for achieving effective and sustainable water resource management on a global scale. In this study, the focus was on runoff predictions across three diverse Indian watersheds—Wunna, Bharathapuzha, and Mahanadi—spanning distinct agro-climatic zones to capture varying climatic and hydrological complexities. The soil and water assessment (SWAT) tool was used to simulate future runoff influenced by LULC and climate change and to explore the related sustainability implications, including related challenges and proposing countermeasures through a sustainable action plan (SAP). The methodology integrated high-resolution satellite imagery, the cellular automata (CA)–Markov model for projecting LULC changes, and downscaled climate data under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, representing moderate and extreme climate scenarios, respectively. SWAT model calibration and validation demonstrated reliable predictive accuracy, with the coefficient of determination values (R2) > 0.50 confirming the reliability of the SWAT model in simulating hydrological processes. The results indicated significant increases in surface runoff due to urbanization, reaching >1000 mm, 600 mm, and 400 mm in southern Bharathapuzha, southeastern Wunna, and northwestern Mahanadi, respectively, especially by 2040 under RCP 8.5. These findings indicate that water quality, agricultural productivity, and urban infrastructure may be threatened. The proposed SAP includes nature-based solutions, like wetland restoration, and climate-resilient strategies to mitigate adverse effects and partially achieve sustainable development goals (SDGs) related to clean water and climate action. This research provides a robust framework for sustainable watershed management in similar regions worldwide.
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DOI: 10.3390/w17030458
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