Skipping Energy Simulation with S-TCML: A Surrogate Machine Learning Sustainable Framework for Real-Time Thermal Comfort Evaluation in Office Buildings

Abstract

The digital and green transitions in the AEC sector require rapid, data-driven workflows to redefine sustainability through real-time performance evaluation. However, the high computational cost of traditional energy simulations often lacks evidence-based feedback during early-stage design. This study introduces a surrogate machine learning framework (S-TCML) designed to bypass traditional energy simulation by providing an instantaneous assessment of thermal comfort. Using a parametric Grasshopper–Honeybee environment, a dataset of 3072 configurations was generated for an office room in Cairo, Egypt. Six machine learning algorithms were benchmarked, with Gradient Boosting and Random Forest demonstrating superior performance in capturing non-linear thermal physics. Validation against the EnergyPlus engine confirmed that S-TCML models deliver predictions in milliseconds—a 99.9% reduction in computational time. The Gradient Boosting model achieved exceptional accuracy with an R2 of 0.999 and RMSE of 0.013 for PMV and an R2 of 0.995 and RMSE of 0.46% for PPD prediction. Feature importance analysis proved that a tree-based ML model can capture the underlying physical relationship between variables. To bridge the feedback gap, a web-based graphical user interface (GUI) was developed to facilitate proactive design exploration. This framework supports sustainable decision-making and design efficiency, offering scalable, user-friendly tools that protect occupant health and ensure thermal resilience in hot–arid environments.