Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies: A case study of the eastern Omo basin

Abstract

 Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies: A case study of the eastern Omo basinTekalegn Ayele Woldesenbeta b, Nadir Ahmed Elagiba a Institute of Geography, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germanyb Ethiopian Institute of Water Resources, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, EthiopiaAbstractSelecting reliable general climate models (GCMs) is crucial for assessing the impact of climate change in a region. The current study evaluated the performance of 34 GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in simulating monthly total rainfall. To this end, the case of eastern Omo basin was considered with observed rainfall data at seven meteorological stations for the period 1985–2014. The corresponding GCM-simulated rainfall data were compared using seven performance metrics. Eight performance metrics were selected under four categories as follow: error metrics (mean bias error, mean absolute error, root mean squared error), model efficiency (Nash and Sutcliffe’s model efficiency, absolute model efficiency, Kling-Gupta model efficiency), indices of agreement (modified index of agreement), and goodness of fit (coefficient of determination). Three key results were obtained: 1) There is no single best overall GCM across the meteorological stations using a single performance metric, 2) No single best GCM was found for a meteorological station using all the performance metrics, and 3) Based on all performance metrics across all the meteorological stations, the best GCMs in order of performance are SAM0-UNICON, TaiESM1, INM_CM5_0, AWI_ESM_1_1_LR, and CMCC_CM2_HR4. The selected GCMs can be used for evaluating the impact of climate change on hydrology, water resource availability, ecological flow regime and for climate adaptation and mitigation strategies.Keywords: performance metrics, CMIP6, rainfall, climate models, ranking, Omo basin,