Risk Assessment of Marine Flooding along the Agadir and Taghazout Coasts (Moroccan Atlantic)

Abstract

Aangri, A.; Hakkou, M.; Krien, Y.; Chtioui, T., and Benmohammadi, A., 2024. Risk assessment of marine flooding along the Agadir and Taghazout coasts (Moroccan Atlantic). Journal of Coastal Research, 40(1), 179–192. Charlotte (North Carolina), ISSN 0749-0208. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's predictions highlight the probability that sea-level rise could exceed 1 m by 2100. As a result, coastal flooding episodes will increase. These will occur during events that simultaneously combine strong swells, spring tides, low-pressure conditions, and abnormally high surges. This behavior can seriously affect urban spaces along the sea. This paper investigated the risk assessment of marine flooding in the Agadir-Taghazout coastline by considering effects of the Sea Level Rise based on a hybrid model. The components of the hybrid model were obtained through NWW III (Wave Watch III), Simulating Wave Nearshore simulations of the propagation of the storm surge from the offshore to the nearshore, and by applying the Generalized Extreme Value method for Total Water Level (TWL) return value estimation. The simple static model calculates extreme levels based on the summation of tidal components, surge, run-up, and return value of TWL. The results obtained are mapped to determine the spatial extent on a height resolution Digital Terrain Model. Currently, the results of the study show, in first order, the high vulnerability of the southern part of the Agadir and Imourane beach. For future conditions, in 2100 the model predicts the submersion of the whole study area, threatening the infrastructures of the first line of the buildings facing the sea. This calls on, from now, the managers of this coast to prepare a protection strategy against this risk.