Response of Species to the Impact of Climate Change in the Gum Arabic Belt, Sudan: A Case Study in Acacia senegal

Abstract

Sustainable management strategies of trees are important for indigenous agroforestry plant species, such as Acacia. Senegal (A. Senegal), due to the impacts of rapid population growth, land use and climate change. The objective of this investigation was to predict the spatio-temporal distribution of A.senegal in the Gum Arabic belt in Sudan in current (1985–2000) and future climate scenarios (2021–2100). Bioclimatic data was used for modeling purposes utilizing Maxent, with the assessment of model precision conducted through the utilization of the Area Under the Curve (AUC) and shown a high goodness-of-it (AUC=0.905±0.003 ). Significant differences were shown in species distribution between current and future periods under selected Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, climate scenario. Our findings indicated that the main predictors influence the distribution of the species were precipitation of wettest quarter and maximum temperature of warmest month. Under the current potential distribution (25.4%), it is projected that Acacia Senegal would expand 36.2%-87.7% (SSP2-4.5) and 38.9-42.5% (SSP5-8.5). It is expected that A.cacia Senegal will create new environments suitable for it due to expected climate changes. Hence, the research necessitates the formulation of a strategic plan aimed to rehabilitation plantations of Acacia senegal and cultivation these species within existing and prospective habitats conducive to their existence.