Researching “resource frontiers” is vital for understanding the human consequences of scaling up renewable energy technologies

Abstract

Scaling renewable energy technologies to mitigate climate change requires transition minerals in volumes much greater than currently mined. Increasing the volume and speed of mining means some places will face unprecedented change and disruption. Researching “resource frontiers” is vital to better understand the local consequences of global climate policies. Scaling renewable energy technologies to mitigate climate change requires transition minerals in volumes much greater than currently mined. Increasing the volume and speed of mining means some places will face unprecedented change and disruption. Researching “resource frontiers” is vital to better understand the local consequences of global climate policies. As the effects of climate change wreak havoc on the Earth’s natural systems, institutions from all parts of the globe have committed to addressing the crisis. These commitments focus on reducing carbon emissions to prevent the global average temperature from rising 2°C beyond pre-industrial levels. One strategy for limiting emissions is to replace fossil-fuelled energy with renewable sources by scaling technologies such as wind turbines, solar panels, and electric vehicles, each of which are mineral-resource intensive. In its 2023 market review, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported record deployment of clean energy technologies propelling growth in key commodity markets. According to the IEA, from 2017 to 2022, the renewable energy sector was the main factor behind a tripling in global demand for lithium, a 70% jump for cobalt, and a 40% rise for nickel.1International Energy AgencyCritical Minerals Market Review 2023 – Analysis.2023Crossref Google Scholar Supplying more minerals in the short term is not the only challenge of the energy transition. Many of these minerals have become harder to find because the world’s easily accessible reserves and resources have been depleted. With mineral exploration occurring in ever more remote, inaccessible, and sensitive locations, mineral discovery and mine development have become more expensive and access to capital more difficult.2The Mining Association of CanadaLevelling the Playing Field: Supporting Mineral Exploration and Mining in Remote and Northern Canada.2015Google Scholar Time frames for developing mines are getting longer and with declining ore grades, miners must disturb more earth to produce an economic unit of ore, further diminishing return on investment. Moreover, when transition minerals are discovered and mining proves to be economically viable, enormous pressure will be put on local populations to accommodate these projects, even when mining poses social and environmental risks and disrupts their way of life. Existing research suggests that the world’s remaining resource-rich locations are likely to be remote, with high conservation value, on the lands of Indigenous peoples, lacking in services and infrastructure, or otherwise undeveloped.3Lèbre É. Stringer M. Svobodova K. Owen J.R. Kemp D. Côte C. Arratia-Solar A. Valenta R.K. The social and environmental complexities of extracting energy transition metals.Nat. Commun. 2020; 11: 4823https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18661-9Crossref PubMed Scopus (163) Google Scholar This creates an obvious conflict between the energy transition, mineral demand, and impacts on local people and environments. Scientific research identifying and characterizing those places where transition minerals are located is vital. We call these places “resource frontiers” and argue that knowing where and how resource frontiers might form, and the contexts from which resources may be extracted, is crucial to formulating climate policies that work to avoid or mitigate localized crises at the source of mineral supply. A “frontier” is an area or territory that is opened for development as more accessible locations are exhausted or resources become scarce.4Rogers A. Castree N. Kitchin R. Rogers A. Castree N. Kitchin R. A Dictionary of Human Geography. Oxford University Press, 2013Google Scholar Frontier locations are often harsh and pose challenges for the parties seeking to develop or protect them. Exploiting a frontier involves the mobilization of resources, people, and technologies to dominate the land and its peoples. Land-connected peoples may include Indigenous, peasant, or tribal peoples, Afro-descendant communities, ethnic minorities, rural, remote, or other isolated groups. In the present day, Indigenous peoples comprise around 15% of the world’s poor, and although they comprise just 5% of global population, steward lands contain an estimated 80% of the world’s remaining biodiversity.5The World BankPartnering with Indigenous Peoples and Ethnic Minorities through Community-Driven Development.2016https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2016/05/11/partnering-with-indigenous-peoples-and-ethnic-minorities-through-community-driven-developmentGoogle Scholar In this sense, a vast majority of their lands are considered ecological frontiers. The term “resource frontier” signals a focus on lands where mineral resources may be mined in the future. This may be a resource-rich location in a remote area that has never seen mining. Or, it may involve mining deeper underground at an existing mine or the use of a new, groundbreaking mining technology that enables a mine to expand beyond its original lease boundary. It may involve mining at a pace or scale that is unprecedented. Using the term “resource frontier” leaves open the possibility that other resources (such as water, sun, and wind) may also be extracted, creating cumulative impacts and concurrent forms of change. Why are resource frontiers important in the context of a global energy transition? Because these are the places that will face rapid forms of social and environmental change to mine the minerals required for renewable energy technologies. Considering that the premise of international climate commitments is to mitigate the global climate crisis, we are concerned that scaling and speeding up resource extraction may proliferate other forms of social and ecological crises, such as the recent tailings dam failures in Mariana and Brumadinho in Brazil, the largest and most fatal industrial accidents in the country’s history.6Hopkins A. Kemp D. Credibility Crisis: Brumadinho and the Politics of Mining Industry Reform. Wolters Kluwer CCH Australia, 2021Google Scholar Many locations will be critical in the race to reduce the damaging effects of climate change, knowing that rushing, in and of itself, creates risk.7Bebbington A. Mususa P. Piesiak M. Nansai K. Haeckel M. Boetius A. Werner T. Wong S. Bebbington A. Månberger A. Critical minerals and critical questions of justice Sustainable opportunities for critical metals.One Earth. 2021; 4https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.02.019Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF Scopus (2) Google Scholar Some existing research, such as ours, has focused on identifying the location of mineral resource inventories required for renewable energy technologies and mapping their intersection with national policy regimes and the local social, environmental, and economic factors that will ultimately determine the feasibility of their extraction.3Lèbre É. Stringer M. Svobodova K. Owen J.R. Kemp D. Côte C. Arratia-Solar A. Valenta R.K. The social and environmental complexities of extracting energy transition metals.Nat. Commun. 2020; 11: 4823https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18661-9Crossref PubMed Scopus (163) Google Scholar,8Valenta R. Kemp D. Owen J.R. Corder G. Lèbre É. Re-thinking complex orebodies: Consequences for the future world supply of copper.J. Clean. Prod. 2019; 220: 816-826https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.02.146Crossref Scopus (96) Google Scholar,9Owen J.R. Kemp D. Harris J. Lechner A.M. Lèbre É. Fast track to failure? Energy transition minerals and the future of consultation and consent.Energy Res. Social Sci. 2022; 89102665https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2022.102665Crossref Scopus (18) Google Scholar,10Owen J.R. Kemp D. Lechner A.M. Harris J. Zhang R. Lèbre É. Energy transition minerals and their intersection with land-connected peoples.Nat. Sustain. 2022; 6: 203-211https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-00994-6Crossref Scopus (35) Google Scholar,11Walker D. Carling J. Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities Must Lead the Way to a Just Energy Transition. Ford Foundation, 2023https://www.fordfoundation.org/news-and-stories/stories/indigenous-peoples-and-local-communities-must-lead-the-way-to-a-just-energy-transition/Google Scholar For example, our work mapping energy transition minerals and land connected peoples indicates that more than two-thirds (69%) of these projects are located on or nearby Indigenous peoples’ or peasant lands.9Owen J.R. Kemp D. Harris J. Lechner A.M. Lèbre É. Fast track to failure? Energy transition minerals and the future of consultation and consent.Energy Res. Social Sci. 2022; 89102665https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2022.102665Crossref Scopus (18) Google Scholar,10Owen J.R. Kemp D. Lechner A.M. Harris J. Zhang R. Lèbre É. Energy transition minerals and their intersection with land-connected peoples.Nat. Sustain. 2022; 6: 203-211https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-00994-6Crossref Scopus (35) Google Scholar For Indigenous peoples, 54% of transition minerals projects are located on or nearby to their lands, with 29% of these projects on or near lands over which Indigenous peoples are recognized as managing or exercising some form of control or influence over land for ecological conservation (Figure 1) . Results show approximately a quarter (23%) of projects on or near Indigenous peoples’ or peasant land located within 50 km of recent violent conflict, with 71% located in food insecure jurisdictions, 62% in high water risk locations, and 60% in jurisdictions where the majority of national capacity measures for permitting, consultation and consent are above the medium threshold.9Owen J.R. Kemp D. Harris J. Lechner A.M. Lèbre É. Fast track to failure? Energy transition minerals and the future of consultation and consent.Energy Res. Social Sci. 2022; 89102665https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2022.102665Crossref Scopus (18) Google Scholar,10Owen J.R. Kemp D. Lechner A.M. Harris J. Zhang R. Lèbre É. Energy transition minerals and their intersection with land-connected peoples.Nat. Sustain. 2022; 6: 203-211https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-00994-6Crossref Scopus (35) Google Scholar These results raise serious concerns about the contexts in which these minerals are located and the conditions that may be applied to their extraction. “Resource inventories” are important as they provide information that other modes of analysis may overlook.12Owen J.R. Kemp D. Schuele W. Loginova J. Misalignment between national resource inventories and policy actions drives unevenness in the energy transition.Commun. Earth Environ. 2023; 4: 454-512https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01134-4Crossref Scopus (2) Google Scholar For instance, these inventories contain information about commodities, which means that they can be linked to certain technologies, enabling the study of mineral bundles, such as those required for electric vehicles or for solar panels, as distinct from studies about a single commodity. Resource inventories also contain information about project lifecycles, so we can analyze and compare projects in early-stage development, late-stage (i.e., close to production), those in operation, and those that are closed or in care and maintenance. Using this information, we can study project ownership, price, and processing method, enabling analysis of the nature and quantity of mine waste, such as tailings, that may be produced and stored locally. By linking underground minerals to above-ground factors, it becomes possible to build a clearer understanding of the magnitude of social and environmental risks of mining transition minerals. Local communities, Indigenous peoples, and civil society groups continue to call attention to mining’s risks and impacts, such as land and water contamination, air pollution, displacement, impacts on culture and heritage, and exclusion from participating in development decisions. Some communities oppose mining outright when they see it as incompatible with their values. In North America, a giant lithium mine at Thacker Pass, a sacred massacre site for Native American tribes in Arizona in the USA, has faced sustained opposition.13Sainato M. ‘We Were Not Consulted’: Native Americans Fight Lithium Mine on Site of 1865 Massacre. The Guardian, 2023Google Scholar Resolution Copper, also in the state of Arizona, is another site of contention.14Krauss C. A Copper Mine Could Advance Green Energy but Scar Sacred Land. The New York Times, 2023Google Scholar In Panama, courts recently voided the mining concession of one of the world’s largest copper mines in response to widespread social opposition and unrest.15Moreno E. Hilaire V. Panama President Directs First Quantum to Shut Copper Mine after Court Ruling. Reuters, 2023Google Scholar It is important that researchers put local issues into a global context and signal where community claims and concerns are symptomatic of deeper issues that require attention. An energy transition that is insensitive to these dynamics will most certainly fail and cause loss and damage in the process. Market norms operate on the basis that, wherever possible, social and environmental costs are externalized into the local context.16Svobodova K. Owen J.R. Kemp D. Moudrý V. Lèbre É. Stringer M. Sovacool B.K. Decarbonization, population disruption and resource inventories in the global energy transition.Nat. Commun. 2022; 13: 7674https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-35391-2Crossref Scopus (15) Google Scholar Mining companies are routinely encouraged, supported even, to develop resource frontiers and take advantage of minerals resources that can be exploited, externalizing costs to achieve the lowest possible unit cost of production. History suggests that any leverage for softening or weakening of agreed social or environmental standards or taking advantage of pre-existing weaknesses in legal or regulatory systems is bound to occur. We anticipate that in the context of the climate crisis, calls to “fast-track” mining might be attractive to governments, but will in turn increase the likelihood that some places will be sacrificed for the benefit of distant others. Climate policy has a role to play in helping to reconcile the tensions between rapidly scaled renewable energy, expanded mineral extraction, and local socio-ecological impacts. By engaging with scientific research, policymakers can better anticipate challenges that local communities may face as states work toward climate targets. Without anticipating these challenges, risks will be imposed upon those people least able to counter them. The world’s policy makers ignored climate scientists for decades, and we are now paying the price. They cannot repeat the same mistakes by ignoring scientific research that seeks to bring the rights and interests of Indigenous peoples and local communities to the fore. Anticipating where social and environmental risks are most likely to emerge will require not only engaging with science but also inviting affected people to participate and represent their interests.11Walker D. Carling J. Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities Must Lead the Way to a Just Energy Transition. Ford Foundation, 2023https://www.fordfoundation.org/news-and-stories/stories/indigenous-peoples-and-local-communities-must-lead-the-way-to-a-just-energy-transition/Google Scholar To avoid the worst outcomes, scaling and speeding up mining would need to be accompanied by a concomitant effort to scale and speed up support for mining-affected people. This is only possible if policy makers are willing to anticipate where pressure may be brought to bear and where support may be needed, recognizing that some communities will always oppose mining on principle. Whatever shape the energy transition takes in future, its making will be a complex process of weighing current versus future impacts and testing whether utilitarian judgements are justifiable when contemplating global versus local effects. There are many questions that arise in this context. For instance, we have questions about the timing and speed of the energy transition. Our recent work reveals a series of misalignments between mineral inventories, production readiness, and policy actions across 18 mineral rich nations.12Owen J.R. Kemp D. Schuele W. Loginova J. Misalignment between national resource inventories and policy actions drives unevenness in the energy transition.Commun. Earth Environ. 2023; 4: 454-512https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01134-4Crossref Scopus (2) Google Scholar After examining clusters of countries to understand different abilities to mobilize national resource inventories and address social and environmental risks, we found high levels of unevenness structured around resource endowment, wealth, and inequality (Figure 2) . This suggests that populations in some countries may be more exposed to risk than others and that the potential for delays in meeting climate targets is predictable. Similarly, we have questions about which populations may be put under the greatest pressure in the immediate term. In previous work, we identified a “safe jurisdictions” bias, where aggregate national datasets obscure issues that lie within nations with a high number of “production ready” late-stage projects.9Owen J.R. Kemp D. Harris J. Lechner A.M. Lèbre É. Fast track to failure? Energy transition minerals and the future of consultation and consent.Energy Res. Social Sci. 2022; 89102665https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2022.102665Crossref Scopus (18) Google Scholar Australia represents what we call a “safe jurisdiction” bias, where the situation faced by Indigenous groups is not always reflected in aggregate national datasets. At the same time, Australia has a large endowment of transition minerals with government policies encouraging resource developers to “partner” with Indigenous peoples in the process of development, without recognizing the risks that mining has historically posed to First Nations and may pose in future. For many Indigenous peoples, the energy transition may result in diminished rights and remedies. Analyzing the intersection between minerals and Indigenous peoples’ rights in land is of critical importance. Equally important is avoiding assumptions that good ideas are risk free. A circular economy is, in principle, a good idea and is having positive effects in some domains.17Whitworth A.J. Vaughan J. Southam G. van der Ent A. Nkrumah P.N. Ma X. Parbhakar-Fox A. Review on metal extraction technologies suitable for critical metal recovery from mining and processing wastes.Miner. Eng. 2022; 182107537https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mineng.2022.107537Crossref Scopus (34) Google Scholar We must be cautious. Re-mining waste dumps and old mine tailings to access previously discarded resources that may now be essential to the energy transition is one way that mining companies are embracing a “circular” approach. However, re-mining waste can delay mined land rehabilitation, consume other precious resources, such as water, and increase the potential for run-off contamination and major disasters.18Owen J.R. Kemp D. Lèbre É. Svobodova K. Pérez Murillo G. Catastrophic tailings dam failures and disaster risk disclosure.Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduc. 2020; 42101361https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101361Crossref Scopus (172) Google Scholar The downside risks of climate solutions must also be considered. There are deep gaps in our collective understanding of how climate change is unfolding and the cost of reaching, or exceeding, tipping points or attempting to prevent this from occurring. Using mineral resource inventories to identify and characterize resource frontiers can provide policy makers with the spatial and temporal data to insist that local conditions are factored into decisions about climate mitigation. Advancing our understanding of the connection that different populations have with resources, and the human consequence of exploiting them, provides an important anchor point for future climate policy. There is no doubt that the lag in accepting climate science has left the planet in a vulnerable position. We cannot wait another 200 years to look back on today’s responses to local peoples’ concerns about mining transition minerals and lament the results. Our work on resource frontiers is supported by the Ford Foundation. The authors declare no competing interests.