Regional-Scale Snow Depth Estimation in the Moroccan Atlas Mountains Using MODIS Remote Sensing Data and Empirical Modeling

Abstract

In Morocco, snow constitutes a crucial freshwater resource, particularly in the Atlas Mountains, where seasonal snowpack significantly contributes to surface water availability, groundwater recharge, and down-stream water supply. However, snow monitoring in these regions remains challenging due to the scarcity and uneven distribution of ground-based snow depth measurements, especially at high altitudes. This lack of observations limits the accurate assessment of snowpack dynamics and hampers hydrological modeling and water resource management. In this study, we assessed the performance of an empirical approach to estimate snow depth from satellite-derived fractional snow cover (FSC) obtained from MODIS observations. Five empirical FSC snow depth models, including linear and nonlinear exponential formulations, are developed and applied across multiple regions of the Moroccan Atlas Mountains. Model coefficients are calibrated independently for each region using three complementary optimization techniques, nonlinear least squares regression, genetic algorithms, and simulated annealing. Model skill was evaluated during calibration and validation using the Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE), Pearson correlation coefficient (R), and absolute error metrics (RMSE and MAE). Results show substantial performance differences across formulations and regions. The most flexible exponential model achieved highest efficiency (KGE up to 0.87; R > 0.85) and 0.26 cm (MAE) under moderate snow conditions. Linear formulations exhibited limited robustness, whereas exponential models better captured snow depth dynamics, particularly in high-altitude areas with deep and persistent snowpacks. These results highlight the potential of FSC-based empirical modeling as a practical and operational solution for snow depth estimation in data-scarce mountainous regions of Morocco.