Reconciling land use dynamics with socio-ecological sustainability in the Miombo woodlands of Tanzania

Abstract

Miombo woodlands are the largest ecosystem in central, western, and southern Tanzania but are susceptible to land use and land cover (LULC) changes. This study integrated spatial analysis of satellite images from 1992, 2007, and 2022 with social survey data to assess the magnitude and drivers of land use and land cover change in central–western Tanzania. The maximum likelihood method for supervised classification was used for land use and land cover analysis, followed by change detection. The weighted average and relative frequency index were used to quantify the drivers of land use and land cover change. The findings of land use and land cover changes are characterized by cropland expansion with dynamic degrees of 13.49 in Urambo (5,353.93 ha annually) and 4.67 in Uyui (13,852.4 ha annually). These transitions were accompanied by considerable woodland loss, at annual rates of 4,685.87 ha (dynamic degree −1.25) in Urambo and 14,434.2 ha (dynamic degree −2.63) in Uyui. The shrubland and thicket have also transitioned to cropland and grassland at different dynamic degrees. The findings are validated by overall accuracy above 78.34% and Kappa coefficients over 0.75 across the study years, confirming usefulness for decision-making. Land use and land cover changes were driven by proximate drivers: woody harvesting, construction materials, cropland expansion, fuelwood collection, charcoal production, and timber extraction. Key underlying drivers were population growth, poverty, timber trade, limited environmental education, and internal migration. Addressing these drivers can limit further land-use and land-cover change and support the socio-ecological sustainability of the Miombo woodlands.