article · Heliyon
This study examined rainfall trends and meteorological drought patterns in the Menna watershed of northwestern Ethiopia between 2000 and 2022. Satellite-derived rainfall data were validated against ground stations and analysed using statistical trend tests alongside multiple drought indices during crop growing seasons. Results revealed that overall annual and belg season rainfall increased, whilst kiremt season rainfall slightly declined. Frequent meteorological droughts affected the watershed, with notable drought events occurring in 2002, 2004, 2009, 2011, 2014, 2015, and 2019. In several years, less than two percent of the area remained unaffected by drought. Approximately 86 percent of the watershed experienced repeated extreme rainfall deficits over the evaluated period. The findings highlight the persistent exposure of the local area to drought and demonstrate the necessity of continuous monitoring and early warning systems to manage climate-related risks.
Frequent droughts pose major threats to agriculture, local livelihoods, and water security. By mapping historical rainfall deficits and confirming the reliability of satellite precipitation data, this research helps regional authorities better understand local climate patterns. These insights are essential for designing targeted disaster preparedness strategies, protecting vulnerable farming communities, and building resilient water management policies in drought-prone areas.
The findings can inform the development of localised early warning systems, climate risk assessment tools, and index-based agricultural insurance products. Potential users include agricultural planners, disaster management agencies, and meteorological service providers. As an applied analytical study validating data sets and regional vulnerability, the research is at an early stage and would require software integration and operational pipelines to translate into active commercial monitoring services.
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Understanding the spatiotemporal patterns of drought is crucial for planning, disaster preparedness, vulnerability assessment, impact evaluation, and policy formulation to mitigate drought-induced effects. The purpose of this study was to assess rainfall trends and spatiotemporal patterns of meteorological drought using geospatial techniques in Menna watershed. The Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) rainfall, and station-based observed rainfall were the datasets used. The station-based rainfall was used to confirm the accuracy of CHIRPS rainfall data. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen's slope estimator were utilized to assess trends and ascertain the extent of change. To characterize meteorological droughts, percent of normal (PN), standardized anomaly index (SAI), and standardized precipitation index (SPI) were computed during the crop growing seasons (2000-2022). The validation result confirmed a strong agreement between the observed and CHIRPS rainfall data (R2 = 0.88). Based on the MK test, an increasing trend has been observed in annual (3.7 mm/year) and <i>belg</i> (3.4 mm/year) rainfall, which was significant at p < 0.05. But the <i>kiremt</i> season was slightly decreasing (-0.7 mm/year). The PN, SAI, and SPI values detected that 2002, 2004, 2009, 2011, 2014, 2015, and 2019 were drought years in the area. Even only 1.4, 0.2, and 0.5% of the watershed were free from drought in 2009, 2014, and 2015, respectively, due to extremely high rainfall deficiency. Conversely, 2001, 2010, and 2016 were notable for having the highest amounts of rainfall compared to the other years. Generally, the region could be classified as an area highly susceptible to meteorological drought in northwestern Ethiopia. There was no even a single year free from drought in the entire study period. To that extent, about 86% of it had repeatedly encountered extreme rainfall deficit (7-23 times) during the study period. Thus, the population has always been repeatedly smashed down by the frequent droughts. To tackle existing challenges and mitigate upcoming risks, continual droughts monitoring and implementation of efficient early warning systems are vital for the region.
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DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e27919
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