Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for the Rabat-Salé Coastline ,Morocco.

Abstract

The Atlantic coast of Morocco is exposed to potentially damaging tsunami events generated by offshore seismic sources. Although several studies have investigated tsunami hazard along the Moroccan coastline, most have relied on deterministic approaches and remain limited in their ability to quantify uncertainty.In this study, we perform a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for the Rabat–Salé coastal region based on thousands of high-resolution tsunami simulations. The methodology follows a three-step workflow: (1) hazard disaggregation and scenario selection, (2) high-resolution tsunami modeling using the Tsunami-HySEA model, and (3) hazard aggregation. High-resolution topo-bathymetric datasets provided by the Moroccan Ministry of Equipment and Water are incorporated to ensure accurate simulation of wave propagation and inundation processes. The results include local hazard curves and probabilistic inundation maps that provide quantitative estimates of tsunami hazard for risk-informed coastal planning and decision-making. This work represents one of the first local-scale PTHA implementations along the Moroccan Atlantic coast and demonstrates the added value of combining advanced numerical modeling with detailed national geospatial datasets for improved coastal risk management. This work was carried out under the Geo-INQUIRE project, funded by the European Commission under project number 101058518 within the HORIZON-INFRA-2021-SERV-01 call.