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article · Desalination and Water Treatment

Prediction of wastewater treatment plant performance through machine learning techniques

202429 citationsOpen accessKafr el-Sheikh University

In plain language

Machine learning models can accurately predict key performance indicators in wastewater treatment facilities. Evaluating operations at the AlHayer wastewater treatment plant in Saudi Arabia, data on chemical oxygen demand, biological oxygen demand, and suspended solids were analysed. The plant demonstrated effective removal of suspended solids, organic matter, and nutrients. Four computational techniques were evaluated to estimate these water quality measures: logistic regression, random forest, gradient boosting, and support vector regression. The findings demonstrate that ensemble learning approaches deliver the highest accuracy. Random forest achieved determination coefficients of 91 percent for chemical oxygen demand and 95 percent for suspended solids. Meanwhile, gradient boosting provided the most accurate predictions for biological oxygen demand at 92 percent. These results highlight ensemble algorithms as effective soft solutions for monitoring treatment performance.

Key takeaways

  • Random forest regression predicted chemical oxygen demand with 91 percent accuracy and suspended solids with 95 percent accuracy.
  • Gradient boosting proved to be the most effective model for predicting biological oxygen demand, reaching 92 percent accuracy.
  • Initial data evaluation confirmed the AlHayer plant effectively removes suspended solids, organic pollutants, and nutrients.
  • Ensemble machine learning models outperformed logistic regression and support vector regression in estimating wastewater quality indicators.

Why it matters

Accurate tracking of water quality parameters like oxygen demand and suspended solids is essential for safe wastewater treatment. Traditional physical and chemical testing can be resource-intensive, whereas computational modelling offers rapid performance estimates. Demonstrating that ensemble learning algorithms reliably predict these treatment metrics can help plant operators optimise monitoring processes and ensure environmental standards are consistently met.

Commercialisation angle

This work applies directly to wastewater treatment plant management and environmental monitoring software. Operators and utility managers could integrate these validated algorithms into digital control platforms to support operational adjustments and monitoring. Having been tested on operational data from an active treatment facility, the modelling approach represents applied research ready for software integration.

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Abstract

This study investigates the use of developed machine learning techniques for modeling the performance of AlHayer, Saudi Arabia, wastewater treatment plant (ALWTP). Three physio-chemical characteristics were measured and predicted, including chemical oxygen demand (COD), biological oxygen demand (BOD), and suspended solids (SS), at ALWTP. The pre-evaluation of collected data revealed the effective capabilities of ALWTP for the removal of suspended solids, organic, and nutrient pollutants. To estimate the physio-chemical characteristics of ALWATP, four developed machine learning techniques were evaluated and compared. Logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), gradient boosting (GB), and support vector regression (SVR) were designed. The evaluation of the proposed models showed RF outperformed other proposed models for estimating COD and SS with accuracy 91 % and 95 % in terms coefficient of determination (R2); however, GB was found the best, with accuracy 92 %, for detecting the BOD performance of ALWATP. This indicates ensemble learning models, RF and GB, can be considered a superiority soft solution for estimating physio-chemical characteristics of wastewater treatment plant.

Research topics

  • Water Quality Monitoring Technologies
  • Water Quality Monitoring and Analysis
  • Hydrological Forecasting Using AI

Sustainable Development Goals

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DOI: 10.1016/j.dwt.2024.100524

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