article · Scientific Reports
Smallholder agriculture in Ethiopia depends heavily on family farming, making intergenerational succession crucial for rural livelihoods. Research evaluating behavioural drivers of farm succession among rural youth remains limited compared to structural analyses. A survey of 370 rural youths aged 18 to 35 in Sinan District, Amhara Region, applied the Theory of Planned Behaviour to assess succession intentions. The framework accounted for 37.4 per cent of the variance in intention. Perceived behavioural control emerged as the strongest predictor, followed by subjective norms and personal attitude towards agriculture, with all three showing statistically significant positive effects. These results demonstrate that young people are more inclined to take over family farms when they feel capable of running them, experience encouragement from family and community members, and view agricultural work favourably. The evidence highlights the relevance of practical skills and community backing alongside structural factors.
Sustaining family farming is critical for food security and rural livelihoods across Ethiopia. Understanding what drives young people to remain in agriculture helps policymakers and development organisations design targeted support. By showing that confidence, social norms, and personal attitudes strongly shape succession decisions, the findings provide a basis for initiatives in training, rural finance, and family-based succession planning to keep farming communities viable.
This early-stage behavioural research does not offer an immediate commercial product. However, agricultural development programmes, rural financial services, and extension providers can use these insights to tailor training modules and financial instruments that raise youth confidence in agricultural management. By identifying confidence and family support as key levers, the findings guide public and private interventions aimed at sustaining smallholder farm viability before broader commercialisation tools can be effectively adopted.
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Ensuring intergenerational farm succession is essential for sustaining smallholder agriculture in Ethiopia, where family farming remains the primary source of rural livelihoods. Although previous studies have mainly emphasized structural factors such as land access, farm size, and profitability, limited empirical evidence exists on the behavioral factors influencing rural youths’ intention to succeed family farms, particularly in Ethiopia. This study therefore examined the determinants of farm succession intention among rural youth in Sinan District, Amhara Region, northwestern Ethiopia, using the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). The study included rural youth aged 18–35 years, with the lower age limit of 18 years selected to avoid the ethical and procedural requirements for minors and to align with the African Union’s youth definition. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 370 potential farm successors selected through a multistage sampling technique. Data were analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM). The results showed that the TPB explained 37.4% of the variance in farm succession intention (R² = 0.374). Perceived behavioral control was the strongest predictor of farm succession intention (β = 0.310, t = 6.687), followed by subjective norms (β = 0.268, t = 5.091) and attitude (β = 0.195, t = 3.955), with all relationships statistically significant ( p < 0.001). The findings demonstrate that rural youths are more likely to intend to continue family farming when they perceive themselves as capable of farming successfully, receive support from family and community members, and hold favorable attitudes toward agriculture. The study extends the application of the TPB to farm succession in the Ethiopian smallholder context and provides evidence to inform policies that strengthen youth access to land, agricultural finance, practical training, extension services, and family-based succession planning to improve generational renewal in agriculture.
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DOI: 10.1038/s41598-026-67545-3
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