Post-fire vegetation regeneration patterns under climatic and topographic constraints in the Moroccan High Atlas

Abstract

Forest fires represent one of the major ecological threats to Mediterranean ecosystems, where increasing climatic variability and human pressures intensify disturbance regimes. This study assesses post-fire vegetation regeneration in the Ighil N'Oumaarad forest massif (Central High Atlas, Morocco) using the Normalized Regeneration Index (NRI) derived from Sentinel-2 imagery for the period 2014-2023. Multiple linear regression was applied to analyze the relationships between vegetation recovery, fire severity, altitude, and slope. The results revealed strong spatial variability in regeneration dynamics, with fire severity emerging as the dominant factor, while slope and altitude exerted secondary influences. Temporal analysis showed a positive response of vegetation to rainfall peaks, although annual precipitation alone did not fully explain regeneration patterns. The integration of remote sensing and statistical modeling provides an effective framework for understanding post-fire recovery and supports the development of adaptive management strategies aimed at enhancing the resilience of mountain forests under increasing climatic stress.