Pathways to sustainable development in Somalia: evaluating the impact of agriculture, renewable energy, and urbanisation on ecological footprints and CO ₂ emissions

Abstract

Environmental sustainability has become a critical concern globally, particularly for developing economies, where environmental deterioration severely impacts human and livestock livelihoods. As these economies grow and populations expand, the quality of the environment typically deteriorates, exacerbating already fragile living conditions. In pursuit of a sustainable future, this study investigates the impact of agricultural value-added, renewable energy consumption, economic growth, and urbanization on ecological footprints and CO2 emissions in Somalia, using time series data from 1990 to 2020. By employing the ARDL bounds testing technique and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), the results reveal that, in the long-run, agricultural value-added and renewable energy consumption significantly reduce both ecological footprints and CO2 emissions. In the short-run, agricultural value-added temporarily increases both variables, while renewable energy’s impact remains consistently beneficial. Economic growth exhibits a dual effect: it significantly increases the ecological footprint in the long-run but reduces CO2 emissions in the short- and long-run, which suggests that sustainable practices can decouple economic expansion from environmental degradation. Urbanization increases both ecological footprints and CO2 emissions in the short- and long-run. In light of these outcomes, the study proposes promoting agricultural sustainability, expanding renewable energy adoption, implementing sustainable urban planning, and encouraging green economic growth.