Navigating climate change impacts on agricultural productivity, food and human health security in developing countries

Abstract

This study examines climate change impacts on agricultural productivity and human health across 20 developing countries (2000–2020) using Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Panel-ARDL) methodology. Our systems approach models dynamic relationships between climate variables, food production, and nutritional outcomes, addressing multicollinearity through variance inflation tests and alternative specifications. National carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions serve as proxies for multiple climate pathways including temperature variations and economic development patterns affecting food systems. Results reveal strong negative long-run relationships between CO 2 emissions and food production, with positive associations with child stunting. The Pooled Mean Group estimator demonstrates homogeneous long-run coefficients while allowing heterogeneous short-term dynamics across countries. The paradoxical positive CO 2 -food insecurity relationship reflects greater climate stresses and inequitable benefit distribution in higher-emission countries. Health impacts exhibit greater persistence than production shocks, emphasizing comprehensive monitoring needs. Findings suggest integrated policies combining climate mitigation, productivity enhancement, and health system strengthening for resilient food systems. • Panel-ARDL methodology examines climate-food-health relationships across 20 developing countries over 2000–2020. • CO 2 emissions demonstrate strong negative association with food production and positive correlation with child stunting. • Agricultural productivity emerges as critical determinant of both food security and nutritional outcomes. • Temperature impacts manifest primarily through short-term dynamics while CO 2 effects persist in long-run equilibrium. • Pooled Mean Group estimator reveals homogeneous long-run relationships despite heterogeneous short-term country dynamics. • Findings support integrated policy approaches combining climate mitigation with agricultural productivity enhancement.