Modelling Youth Gambling Behaviour in Nigeria: The Roles of Digital Exposure, Debt Accumulation, Relapse, and Policy Control

Abstract

Youth gambling has expanded rapidly in Nigeria alongside increased access to digital betting platforms, yet its long-term social and behavioural dynamics remain poorly quantified. This study develops a deterministic compartmental model to examine the progression of youth gambling by incorporating digital exposure, escalation of betting behavior, financial debt accumulation, recovery with relapse, and regulatory enforcement. The model is shown to be mathematically well-defined, with positive and bounded solutions. A threshold quantity is derived to characterize gambling persistence, and its role in governing system dynamics is rigorously analyzed. Sensitivity analysis identifies digital exposure and regulatory enforcement as the most influential drivers of gambling prevalence. Numerical simulations with baseline parameters reveal the existence of a stable endemic gambling state under current conditions, marked by sustained levels of active and problem gambling and growing debt burden. The findings highlight the necessity of structural interventions targeting exposure control and enforcement to prevent long-term entrenchment of youth gambling in Nigeria.