article · International Journal of Remote Sensing
Research over a 56-year period from 1957 to 2013 evaluates landscape transformations and settlement changes in the Ethiopian highlands using aerial photographs, satellite imagery, and direct census data. Supervised classification and visual interpretation reveal an overall expansion of cropland alongside a reduction in other land-cover types, although landscape changes have recently decelerated because of land ownership and policy constraints. Concurrently, exponential population growth has driven a decrease in average family cropland holdings from 2.6 hectares to 1.1 hectares. Statistical analysis confirms a significant relationship between settlement expansion and the growth of cultivated land. By fitting exponential and logistic growth models to population and cropland data, carrying capacity was estimated, demonstrating that declining land per capita has caused food and energy shortages.
Rapid population expansion combined with limited land resources places severe strain on rural communities. By tracking land cover and household numbers over five decades, this research provides empirical evidence of diminishing agricultural holdings per family. It demonstrates how unchecked demographic growth directly precipitates critical food and energy deficits, showing that strategic land management policies are essential to maintain sustainable carrying capacities.
The methodologies could inform commercial spatial planning tools, land-use monitoring platforms, and decision-support software for agricultural development bodies and land management agencies. Because the work focuses on retrospective modelling and demographic carrying capacity rather than product deployment, it represents early-stage analytical research that requires translation into software tools before direct operational or commercial use.
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This study models landscape transformations and settlement dynamics in a highland area of Ethiopia over a 56 year period (1957–2013). The analyses were performed using aerial photographs, satellite images, and field data. The remotely sensed images were geometrically and radiometrically corrected. Visual interpretation of aerial photographs and supervised classification of multispectral satellite images using the maximum likelihood algorithm were chosen for land-cover mapping. The population size was estimated by counting the houses on the aerial photographs and on the high-resolution images, and by direct census. The overall trend showed an increase of cropland and a decrease of other types of land cover. Landscape transformation rates recently slowed down due to ownership and policy restrictions. The average cropland holding size per family has decreased from 2.6 to 1.1 ha due to the exponential growth of the population. The relationship between settlement and cropland expansion is statistically significant. Models of logistic growth were fitted to the cropland area, and models of exponential and logistic growth to the population development to estimate the carrying capacity. The concomitant increase of population and the decrease of cropland per head resulted in a shortage of food and energy, highlighting the importance of policy decisions on land management.
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DOI: 10.1080/01431161.2016.1246773
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