Modelling energy sector-related greenhouse gas emissions: Trends and insights from Burundi’s overall final energy consumption

Abstract

Growing concerns over climate change have underscored the need for rapid actions to mitigate its impacts. In that regard, this study sought to assess greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions linked to total final energy consumption in Burundi. By using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform, GHG emissions linked to final energy consumption and their trends were analyzed. The emissions were simulated at the point of emissions and determined in CO 2 equivalent at 100-Year GWP “Global Warming Potential”. Results showed that the country’s total final energy demand is anticipated with a rising trend and households are expected to stay the leading overall final energy consumer. Consequently, this increase is expected to drive a rise in GHG emissions. In residential sector, 1753.9 Thousand Metric Tonnes (tmt) CO 2 equivalent were emitted in 2015 and about 2095.7 tmt and 2358.7 tmt of CO 2 equivalent would be emitted by 2030 and 2040, respectively in that sector. Despite its predicted decline in GHG emissions share, firewood contributed to 87.8 % of the emissions in 2015 in residential sector and is expected to remain the highest contributor of GHG emissions by 2040 with a share of 59.6 %. The GHG emitted by wood fuels represented a large share—73.9 % in 2015—of the total energy demand. However, reference-scenario simulations showed that the situation was expected to shift from 2019 onward, with the share of oil rising to 45.4 % against 41.8 % for firewood. Through implementation of improved cookstoves policy, 903.4 tmt CO 2 equivalent would be avoided as compared to the reference-scenario while the adoption of low-emissions power technologies would keep the GHG emissions within the range of 1.0–2.3 tmt CO 2 equivalent. The Burundi GHG emissions records presented in this study would support the country in fulfilling both its Nationally Determined Contributions targets and SDG–7 objectives. • Burundi’s total final energy demand is highly dependent on biomass. • The residential sector is expected to remain the country’s leading final energy consumer. • Overall final energy demand is projected to increase from 178,993.9 TJ in 2015 to 417,980.0 TJ in 2040. • Firewood contributed 87.8 % of GHG emissions in the Burundian residential sector in 2015 and wood is expected to remain the main source of energy. • The growing final energy demand is anticipated to contribute to an increase in the country’s GHG emissions.