Modelling Climate‐Resilient Habitats for Conservation and Restoration of Isoberlinia doka Craib and Stapf and Isoberlinia tomentosa (Harms) Craib and Stapf in Benin

Abstract

ABSTRACT Despite having similar climatic niches, climate change can affect closely related tree species differently. Using occurrence data and environmental predictors, we evaluated the climate vulnerability, niche similarity and conservation priorities of Isoberlinia doka Craib and Stapf and Isoberlinia tomentosa (Harms) Craib and Stapf in Benin. These open‐forest species play an important ecological and socioeconomic role for local communities by providing firewood, charcoal, timber and medicinal resources. We modelled the climatic suitability of the species using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) under current conditions and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1–2.6, SSP 2–4.5 and SSP 5–8.5 scenarios for the period 2041–2060. We quantified climate niche overlap using Schoener's D and Hellinger's I indices. Spatial prioritization integrated climatic suitability, edaphic conditions, topographic moisture and anthropogenic pressure. Despite exhibiting high niche overlap ( D = 0.635; I = 0.788), the species responded differently. I. doka experienced severe habitat contraction, with losses of 62%–87% in the Sudanian zone (SZ) and Sudanian–Guinean zone (SGZ) and near‐complete loss of suitable habitat in the Guinean zone. I. tomentosa experienced more moderate losses (8%–12%) in the SZ and localized gains (6%–8%) in the SGZ. Priority areas were primarily located in the SZ, with less than 13% overlapping with existing protected areas. These findings demonstrate that niche conservatism does not imply equivalent climate vulnerability among closely related species. Therefore, conservation planning should be species‐specific and extend beyond protected areas through habitat restoration, agroforestry and targeted protection of priority populations. Such strategies support the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals 13 and 15 by promoting climate change adaptation, biodiversity conservation, sustainable ecosystem management and local livelihoods.