Modeling the spatio–temporal wavefront of cholera epidemics using a fluid dynamics framework

Abstract

Cholera, a severe waterborne disease, exhibits complex spatiotemporal dynamics driven by human mobility and environmental contamination, particularly in dense urban settings like Lagos, Nigeria. This study introduces a novel fluid dynamics framework for modeling cholera transmission by conceptualizing infected human populations and Vibrio cholerae concentrations as interacting continuum fluids. The coupled system is governed by hyperbolic partial differential equations derived from conservation laws and implemented using a high-fidelity numerical scheme combining fifth-order Weighted Essentially Non-Oscillatory (WENO) spatial discretization with third-order Runge–Kutta temporal integration. Validated against the 2024 Lagos outbreak, our simulations accurately replicate outbreak progression, capturing the critical transition from homogeneous to heterogeneous spread patterns. Intervention analysis demonstrates that elevated disinfection strategies reduce both infection prevalence and spatial propagation velocity by approximately 50%. The model shows strong agreement with empirical data (MASE = 0.82), establishing its utility for designing targeted public health interventions in complex urban environments.