Modeling the Niche Suitability of Grey Crowned Crane ( <i>Balearica regulorum</i> ) to Inform Conservation Strategies in Kenya

Abstract

The Grey Crowned Crane is listed globally as Endangered, primarily due to threats such as habitat loss, degradation, and fragmentation, as well as human encroachment, electrocution, and illegal capture. Effective conservation requires knowledge of the species' current and future spatial distribution under changing climatic conditions. This study addresses these knowledge gaps by assessing the climate suitability and spatial distribution of the species in Kenya under current and future climate scenarios. Using occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility and climatic variables from WorldClim, species distribution models were developed to evaluate the species' suitable habitats. The influence of climatic predictors on species distribution was assessed under two climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) for the period 2020-2040. An ensemble modeling approach combining Generalized Linear Models, Generalized Additive Models, and Random Forest algorithms was used to predict suitable crane habitats. The distribution map was overlaid with protected area boundaries to assess the coverage of habitat protection. Results indicate that suitable habitats are largely concentrated in western and southwestern Kenya, with distribution strongly influenced by temperature and precipitation. The predicted reduction in suitable area, about 49.5% under SSP2-4.5 and 47.5% under SSP5-8.5, highlights the vulnerability of the species to changing climatic conditions. Projections under the two climate change scenarios revealed a potential contraction in the suitable range, indicating possible adverse impacts of climate change. These findings provide insights into the climatic drivers of Grey Crowned Crane distribution and offer a basis for informing conservation planning and habitat management under future climate change.