Modeling the ecological niche of <i>rhamnus prinoides</i> L. under climate change scenarios: a MaxEnt modeling approach

Abstract

Nowadays, the crucial issue in ecology is how changing climate influences species distributions and existence in a natural ecosystem. Changes in spatiotemporal environmental patterns lead to either expansions, contrasts, or shifts to comparable habitats. The aim of this study was to define the ecological niches, potential distributions and examine trends of changes in Rhamnus prinoides in response to climate change. A bioclimatic, topographic, and soil type dataset were used to analyze the current and future species distribution patterns. The model, with a high accuracy (AUC 0.887, TSS 0.6327), revealed that elevation and soil type are key factors influencing R. prinoides distribution. Under the current climatic conditions, the predicted total suitable habitat of R. prinoides was approximately 15.17% of Tigray. Future climate scenarios predict both expansion and contraction of these areas, particularly in the northwest, central, and southern zones. In addition, areas of new and lost habitat for R. prinoides species were found in all scenarios. Findings of this study concluded that, the distributional range of R. prinoides was found to be primarily associated with altitude and soil type. Moreover, the majority of Tigray’s highlands will continue suitable potential areas for R. prinoides cultivation in the future.