article · Dutse Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences
A stochastic modelling framework using a continuous-time birth-death process evaluates the dynamics of terrorism and potential counter-strategies. By formulating the Kolmogorov master equation and applying probability generating functions, mathematical expectations are derived for distinct population segments. Computational simulations carried out in R using the adaptivetau package demonstrate that direct military intervention alone is insufficient to halt terrorism permanently. Although kinetic military operations remain a significant component of national defence, sustainable long-term stability requires addressing the underlying drivers of radicalisation. Consequently, the results show that dialogue, rehabilitation programmes, and other non-kinetic interventions are vital elements in reducing violence. Achieving enduring security relies on deploying an integrated strategy that systematically combines armed military operations with comprehensive dialogue-based initiatives.
Terrorism causes widespread instability, yet relying solely on armed intervention often fails to secure lasting peace. Mathematical modelling gives security planners and policymakers a systematic method to evaluate different control measures. Demonstrating that non-violent interventions like dialogue and rehabilitation are essential alongside defence operations helps governments design more balanced, humane, and durable security policies.
The model represents early-stage decision-support research that could eventually inform predictive software tools for defence analysts, security agencies, and policy advisory organisations. Because the work is currently limited to stochastic simulations in R, substantial testing and validation against empirical operational datasets would be necessary before it could be developed into applied planning tools or commercially viable policy simulation software.
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This study adopts a stochastic framework using a continuous-time birth-death process to analyze transition probabilities between compartments and develop the Kolmogorov master equation. By employing the probability generating function, the research derives expectation equations for each population segment, offering valuable insights into the system's dynamic behavior. Through stochastic modeling, the study highlights the necessity of a novel approach to combating terrorism. Simulations conducted with the adaptivetau package in R reveal that while military intervention remains significant, it must be augmented with strategies targeting the root causes of radicalization. The findings emphasize the importance of dialogue and rehabilitation efforts, underscoring the critical role of non-kinetic measures in achieving sustainable stability. The study concludes by recommending an integrated strategy combining military actions with dialogue-based initiatives.
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DOI: 10.4314/dujopas.v11i1d.4
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